Chad Dawson and Andre Ward are scheduled to meet on August 8 in Oakland California in what's expected to one of the most competitive bouts of the year. I don't predict this fight will be a blockbuster, but the boxing purist will be in heaven.
Most matches feature fighters with clear advantages over one another in some area (such as power or speed), but this one doesn't. Both of these fighters are pretty evenly matched in all areas, so this fight will be decided by tactical decisions, and most significantly, the intangibles.
That being said, Dawson has a fight on his hands. This will definitely be his toughest match since his first fight with Glen Johnson. Ward is not a guy who makes a lot of mistakes, and when he does, he only makes them once.
Dawson must-first and foremost-exploit the narrow advantage afforded him by his southpaw stance. He can accomplish this by moving to his right to position Ward's left foot on the inside (the left side) of his right foot. This leaves Dawson out of range for Ward's right, while making it harder for Ward to see or anticipate anything Dawson does with his
right. Peppering Ward with jabs and right hooks will assist in keeping Ward out of position. In addition, a quick step to the right from this position allows Dawson to counter Ward's jab with his own left.
Dawson must also exploit his height and reach advantage. Both men are really good at fighting on the outside, but Dawson's five and a half inch reach advantage (as per boxrec.com) gives him the edge at a distance. This only works if Dawson throws hard shots. If he throws range finders, Ward will run in and rough him up.
Though both men have superb defensive skills, Dawson's defense and reflexes are a little better. He can only make this work from the outside, where he perfectly capable of making Ward miss and then making him pay. Ward will likely be the busier fighter, and he's perfectly comfortable being the aggressor, so Dawson's ability to utilize his superior defense will be integral to him winning.
The final thing that Dawson must consider is how to handle Ward on the inside. Ward is a very crafty fighter, and despite all the tactics Dawson can employ, a huge chunk of the action will take place in the trenches. Ward is much better than Dawson on the inside, especially when it comes to getting off shots and shifting his body weight to get leverage. Without a way to counteract this, Dawson's chances of winning are slim.
On the inside, Dawson has an escape route: his southpaw stance. If he's able to maintain his position-with his right foot outside of Ward's-Dawson will be able to spin out and counter. While this strategy is solid, it won't always work. If it doesn't, Dawson should then tie him up. Practicing a combination of each of these strategies should effectively nullify Ward on the inside.
These techniques will work only if Dawson is able to impose his will on Ward. If Dawson doesn't do these things with true conviction and faith they will work, they won't. He has to get inside Ward's mind and make him believe there is that there is nothing he can do that Dawson's not prepared for. Underneath everything, these are the intangibles that will decide the fight.
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